пʼятниця, 14 травня 2010 р.

People are bad risks managers when it comes to estimating real-life risks. They often overestimate the low-probability events, while underestimating the higher-probability ones. One of my acquaintances is extremely frightened of airplane flights. At the same time, he sees nothing critical in drink-driving from time to time. It appeared useless to explain him that he has much bigger chance of getting into a car accident (even not considering drinking) than of being killed in airplane crash.

Most of the people are afraid of dogs, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, hackers, civil wars, disability. Of course, many of those scares are real and justified ones. However, much more dangerous are everyday threats that we usually do not consider at all. Unprotected sex takes away hundreds times more lives than mad dogs do. Smoking will turn you to a disabled person much faster than your old CRT display will (the one that you have finally upgraded to a brand new LCD device, so that your ashtray felt comfortable beside the keyboard). Inability to get rid of stress is likely to kill you ten years before a terrorist blows your car up.

Немає коментарів: